What your customers will buy next, with its band.
Thirteen weeks of orders ahead, with an honest range. Plan stock, spend and cash on the customers you already have.
Forecast
- Orders seen
- Expected from customers already scored, with its band
- With new customers at today’s rate
- 23,400
- Orders expected, 13 weeks
- 21,300 to 25,600
- The band
- +4,900
- With new customers at today’s rate
The customers already scored are expected to place 23,400 orders over the next 13 weeks, between 21,300 and 25,600. New customers at your current rate would add about 4,900.
A number that moved is not news until it is re-measured.
Every tracked metric, this run against the last, with a verdict on each change. Movement inside a metric’s own noise is called noise, so a board slide never carries a wobble as a trend.
What moved it. Forward CLV rose $40,000 in the week: 1,106 reorders landed earlier than their customers’ rhythm expected, most of them Field Coat buyers. The rest of the table moved inside its own noise.
The long arc. The same metrics month by month since install, so a quarter’s drift is read apart from a week’s.
Movement
| Metric | Previous | Current | Change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward CLV | $4.21M | +1.0% | re-measured | |
| Forward CLV per customer | $68.50 | +0.9% | re-measured | |
| Customers scored | 61,480 | +0.4% | noise | |
| Have bought twice | 17,830 | +0.2% | noise | |
| Margin rate | 58.0% | +0.4 pts | re-measured | |
| Still buying | 12.3% | +0.4 pts | re-measured | |
| Return propensity | 5.1% | −0.2 pts | noise | |
| Promo reliance | 16.4% | +0.3 pts | noise | |
| Held by the top 10% | 64.0% | −0.2 pts | noise | |
| One-time buyers’ Forward CLV | $1.18M | +1.7% | re-measured |
Forward CLV rose 1.0% and the run says why. Six of the ten rows moved too, inside their own noise, and are marked as such.
Plan from a sentence.
Margin, a product, a rate, a month. Write the change as you would say it and Tacet runs it through the customers already scored, in Forward CLV and in what it does to the playbooks you run.
Plan from a sentence
What if margin drops ten points?
Forward CLV falls $726,000 to $3.48M. The reorder playbook’s break-even rises from 1.1 to 1.3 orders per 100 sent, which it still clears.
- Margin
- −10 pts
Plan from a sentence
What if we stop selling the Trail Boot from January?
4,870 customers lose their most likely next order. Forward CLV falls $214,000 unless the Field Boot takes 60% of it, which your own history says it does.
- Product
- Jan 2027
Plan from a sentence
What if the second-purchase rate rises two points?
873 more second orders over 12 months and $147,000 of Forward CLV. That is the size of the second-purchase playbook’s job, before the held-back read.
- Repeat rate
- +2 pts
What it will not do. Guess a lever the data cannot see. A question about a cohort’s decay, or a competitor, comes back with the levers that are available instead.
See what your own customers are expected to buy next, free, by tomorrow morning.
Where acquisition pays back, by the first product.
Contribution per customer in their first 90 days and first year, by the product they bought first. Payback is the month that contribution passes your cost to acquire.
Products · Payback
| First product | First buyers | 90 days, each | 12 months, each | Paid back | Return rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waxed Field Coat | 445 | $175.93 | $231.40 | Month 1 | 6.8% |
| Trail Boot | 612 | $88.20 | $142.60 | Month 2 | 11.2% |
| Denim Work Jacket | 509 | $52.70 | $61.20 | Month 3 | 27.5% |
| Merino Base Layer | 1,038 | $41.10 | $79.30 | Month 4 | 4.1% |
| Canvas Tote | 1,421 | $18.40 | $33.70 | Month 9 | 2.3% |
A customer whose first order was the Field Coat has paid back $42 of acquisition inside the first month. A Tote buyer takes nine. Spend finds the first row.
Your cost to acquire is your setting. Type a CPA, or one per product, and the paid-back month moves with it. Tacet never guesses it.
Returns per product. With your returns platform connected, each product carries its own return rate, so a gateway that pays back on paper and comes back in the post is read as both.
Products, judged by who buys them.
Shopify tells you what sold. Tacet ranks every product by the Forward CLV of its buyers, how many of them buy again, and how often it comes back.
The figures describe the buyers, never the product. A high return propensity on a product means it attracts people who return things. The return rate beside it is the product’s own.
An accessory inverts the reading. Field Coat Wax ranks first because people who already own the coat buy it, not because it brought anyone in. The payback table above is the first-purchase view.
Products · Buyers' value
| Product | Buyers | Forward CLV, each | Buy again | Return rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Field Coat WaxBought by people who already own the coat. High because of who buys it, not what it is. | 3,980 | $241 | 88% | 0.4% |
| Waxed Field Coat | 2,310 | $212 | 54% | 6.8% |
| Trail Boot | 2,904 | $158 | 41% | 11.2% |
| Merino Base Layer | 5,112 | $96 | 33% | 4.1% |
| Denim Work JacketMost refunded product. Its buyers return things, and the jacket comes back too. | 1,877 | $71 | 22% | 27.5% |
| Canvas Tote | 6,040 | $44 | 19% | 2.3% |
The Denim Work Jacket sells well and comes back at 27.5%. Ranked by its buyers’ Forward CLV it sits fifth, which is the number a reorder of it should be judged on.
Read-only on your store.
Tacet reads Shopify and never writes to it. Customer data is limited to name and email, plus orders and refunds.
Nothing sends without your GO.
Your admin switches every playbook on. It sends from your own Klaviyo, under your sender.
Every result measured against customers who didn't get it.
A group is held back from every playbook. Results are read in profit, after product cost, discounts and refunds.
Plan on the customers you already have.
Your customer P&L, free, the morning after you connect Shopify.